- Lesi sifunda sesibe yindawo eyinhloko yombango weqhinga phakathi kweShayina, i-United States, kanye ne-European Union wokulawula izinsiza kanye nemizila.
- I-Panama-Chancay logistics axis iyisibonelo sokusetshenziswa kwamandla anamuhla olwandle ukuze kulawulwe ukuhweba kwe-transpacific.
- Amazwe aseLatin America asebenzisa indlela yokungavumelani ukuze ahlukanise abalingani bawo futhi agweme ukuncika komunye nomunye.
Isikhathi eside, iLatin America yayibhekwa ngamazwe amakhulu njengesifunda sesibili, indawo ebikezelwayo lapho izingxabano zazimane nje ziwumsindo wangemuva. Kodwa-ke, leso sikhathi sokungabonakali sesiphelile , futhi lesi sifunda sesiphinde sathatha indawo ephambili ebalazweni lecebo lomhlaba wonke. Namuhla, izwekazi liyindawo yomdlalo we-chess we-geopolitical odlalwa phakathi kweWashington, iBeijing, neBrussels, oqhutshwa yisidingo sokuvikela ukutholakala kwempahla nokulawula ukugeleza kokuhweba ngekhulu lama-21.
Asikhulumi nje kuphela ngezingxoxo noma izivumelwano ezisayinwe emahhovisi, kodwa nangomzabalazo obonakalayo wokulawula ingqalasizinda ebalulekile , kusukela ezintanjeni zamanzi kuya emachwebeni amakhulu. Kulesi simo, amazwe aseLatin America azithola esesimweni esibucayi kodwa esigcwele amathuba, ezama ukudlala amakhadi awo ngendlela efanele ukuze angagcini nje empikiswaneni ebadlula ngamandla ezezimali nawezempi, ehlala efuna ukulondoloza ukuzimela kwawo kwezwe.
I-Panama-Chancay Axis kanye nethiyori yamandla olwandle
Uma sifuna ukuqonda i-geoeconomics yanamuhla, kumelwe sibheke olwandle. Ukudalwa komzila wezokuthutha oxhumanisa iPanama nechweba laseChancay ePeru kungaphezu nje kwephrojekthi yobunjiniyela bezokwakha; kuwukusetshenziswa okusebenzayo kwemibono kaMahan ngamandla emikhumbi. Isisekelo sicacile: noma ngubani olawula imizila yasemanzini futhi onengqalasizinda yechweba edingekayo ulawula ukuhweba, futhi, ngokwengeziwe, ingcebo yomhlaba wonke. Lo mzila uyinto ebalulekile yokuxhumanisa i-Belt and Road Initiative yaseShayina nezimakethe zase-Atlantic nasePacific.
Ngokombono wezepolitiki zasolwandle, lawa ma-node asebenza njengezindawo ezibalulekile. Awagcini nje ngokwenza kube lula ukuthutha izimpahla emhlabeni wonke, kodwa futhi ahlinzeka ngokujula okubalulekile kweqhinga . Kunoma yimaphi amandla, ukuba namachweba akwazi ukusekela izinto zokuhamba, ukugcwalisa uphethiloli, kanye nokulungisa kuyindlela kuphela yokugcina ubukhona besikhathi eside bemikhumbi e-Indo-Pacific, okwenza ugu lwaseNingizimu Melika Pacific lube yingxenye ebalulekile yebhalansi yomhlaba wonke.
I-China, ngendlela enengqondo, itshale izigidigidi kulezi zinhlelo, ibona kuzo amandla okuguqula isimo sezentengiselwano sibe yindawo yokusebenza kwemikhumbi uma kwenzeka inkinga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-United States izama ukuvikela i-thalassocracy yayo yendabuko, ilwela inkululeko yokuhamba ngemikhumbi , kodwa ithola ukuthi ukwanda kweShayina kusekelwe ekutshalweni kwezimali kwangempela nokubonakalayo okudala ukuthembela kwezomnotho okunzima ukukuqeda.
Isu Lamandla Aphezulu: Ukungafani Nokungezwani
Ukuguquguquka komdlalo kuyahlukahluka kakhulu kuye ngokuthi ubani othatha isinyathelo. IBeijing isebenzisa lokho okubizwa ngokuthi amandla athambile ngokubambisana okubandakanya wonke umuntu kanye nokusebenza ngendlela efanelekile. Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwayo emandleni, kwezokuxhumana, kanye nasekuthuthweni emazweni afana neBrazil, i-Argentina, kanye neChile akuvamile ukuhambisana nezidingo zezepolitiki ezicacile, okukhanga kakhulu ohulumeni basekhaya. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kuthwala ingozi yokuthembela ngokweqile kwezezimali kanye nokuba sengozini yokushintshashintsha kwentengo yezimpahla.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iWashington iphinde yaphendukela esifundeni, kodwa hhayi esikhundleni sobukhosi obuphelele, kodwa kunalokho ngenxa yesidingo sokunciphisa ukwanda kweShayina . Isu le-US livame ukuba nolaka kakhulu, lihlanganisa izikhuthazo zomnotho nengcindezi yezepolitiki kanye nezinyathelo zokuphepha. Amazwe amaningi anomuzwa wokuthi ubudlelwano ne-US buhlala bungafani futhi, ngezinye izikhathi, busekelwe ekungeneleleni, okuholele ekutheni ithonya le-United States lingatshazwa kakhulu namuhla kunaseminyakeni embalwa edlule.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-European Union ingena kule ndawo ngesiphakamiso esisekelwe emithethweni, ezindinganisweni, kanye nokusimama. Nakuba bengabalingani bendabuko futhi befuna ukuqinisa ubudlelwano ngezivumelwano ezifana neMercosur, i-EU ibhekene nenkinga yobukhulu: ayinazo izinhlaka zezimali zaseShayina kanye namandla ezempi ase-US. Ukuba khona kwayo kubaluleke kakhulu ezindabeni zomthetho nezokulawula, kodwa ivame ukwehluleka lapho izama ukubeka uhlelo lwangempela lwesifunda phambi kweziqhwaga zase-Asia nezaseMelika.
Izinsizakusebenza Ezihlelekile kanye Nokungavumelani Okusebenzayo
Iningi lale ntshisekelo evuselelwe livela eqinisweni lokuthi iLatin America iyimayini yegolide yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezibalulekile . I-lithium, ithusi, kanye nezinto zomhlaba ezingavamile yizona zinto zokwakha ushintsho lwamandla kanye nobuchwepheshe besimanje. Ezweni elifuna ukunciphisa ukuthembela kwalo kubaphakeli ababodwa, lesi sifunda sivela njengenye indlela enengqondo. I-China ibilokhu ishesha kakhulu ukuvikela lezi zinsiza, kuyilapho iYurophu izama ukuxoxisana ngezivumelwano ezifaka amazinga ezemvelo nezenhlalo , yize ngesivinini esihamba kancane kakhulu futhi esinobushiqela.
Ebhekene nalolu cindezelo, kuvele into eyaziwa ngokuthi ukungavumelani okusebenzayo . Esikhundleni sokukhetha uhlangothi, amazwe amaningi aseLatin America anqume ukubambisana nawo wonke umuntu: ukuphepha ne-US, umnotho neShayina, kanye nokulawula neYurophu. Lokhu kuguquguquka kubavumela ukuthi basebenzise ngokugcwele amandla abo futhi banciphise ukuthembela kwabo okukhethekile kumlingisi oyedwa, bagweme ukuwela emicabangweni ebandayo, esekelwe emaqenjini ahlukene ebonakala ibuyela esigabeni somhlaba.
ISpain idlala indima emangalisayo lapha. Ngenxa yobudlelwano bomlando kanye nolimi, inemali yobudlelwano efiselekayo eyivumela ukuthi isebenze njengebhuloho phakathi kweBrussels kanye nezinhloko-dolobha zaseLatin America. Kodwa-ke, inselele yeSpain ukuguqula lobu buhlobo bamasiko bube yikhono langempela lethonya lezepolitiki, kusize i-EU ukuba isheshe futhi ingasabeli kakhulu esu layo lesifunda.
Impumelelo yesifunda emashumini eminyaka ezayo izoncika ekhonweni laso lokuxhumanisa ngaphakathi ngamapulatifomu afana ne-CELAC ne-Mercosur. Ukuthola ibhalansi phakathi kwezintshisekelo zomhlaba kanye nemigomo yaso yentuthuko kuyindlela kuphela yokuthi iLatin America ibe ngaphezu nje kwenkundla yokudlala; kumele ibe ngumdlali osebenzayo onezwi nevoti ohlelweni olusha lwe-multipolar, lapho ukuhlangana okuhlukahlukene kuzoba yisihluthulelo sokusinda nokuchuma kwaso.