- Ubudlelwano buchaza ubudlelwano; ukuba yikho okubangela kusho indlela kanye nesiqondiso.
- Izibonelo zangempela zibonisa iziguquguquko zesithathu, ukuguquka kwesizathu, kanye ne-paradox kaSimpson.
- Ukulinganisa imiphumela: ukungahleliwe, imiklamo yokuhlola okulinganiselwe, kanye nokulungiswa okuqinile.
- Ulimi oluhlakaniphile lugwema ukuguqula ukuhlobana kokubuka kube yizimbangela eziqondile.
Ingxoxo yomphakathi mayelana nedatha igcwele izingibe zomqondo, futhi phakathi kwazo, ukudideka iqiniso lokuthi izinto ezimbili ziyahambisana nokuthi enye ibangela enye ingenye yezinto ezivame kakhulu. Ubudlelwano obuhlukile ngokusobala nembangela Akuyona nje ubuchwepheshe bezibalo; kuyikhono eliwusizo lokugwema izinqumo ezisheshayo kwezempilo, ezomnotho, ukumaketha, noma isayensi yezepolitiki.
Kule migqa elandelayo uzothola umhlahlandlela ophelele nojabulisayo wokugwema ukuwela kulolo gibe. Sizochaza yomibili imiqondo futhi sibukeze umehluko obalulekile.Sizobheka izibonelo zansuku zonke ezikhohlisayo ekuqaleni, sihlole izindlela zokwembula ubudlelwano bamanga, futhi sibukeze izindlela eziqine kakhulu zokuthola imiphumela eyimbangela lapho singenakukwazi ukuzama ngokukhululeka.
Sisho ukuthini ngokuhlobana nokuthi kuthiwani ngokubangela?
Uma iziguquguquko ezimbili zihamba ndawonye, sivame ukuthi zihlobene: uma eyodwa ikhula, enye ivame ukwanda, noma okuphambene nalokho. Ubudlelwano buyindlela yokulinganisa ubudlelwanoIbala ubukhulu kanye nesiqondiso salokho okuhambisanayo, kodwa ayisitsheli ukuthi kungani kwenzeka.
Ukudala kungenye indaba: kusho ukuthi ushintsho kwesinye isiguquli lubangela ushintsho kwesinye. Ubudlelwano bembangela buqondiswe ngqo. Futhi kudinga indlela exhumanisa imbangela nomphumela. Ukuba khona kwembangela kungase kuholele noma kungaholeli ekuhlobaneni okubonakalayo kudatha, kuye ngokuthi silinganisa kanjani futhi ngaphansi kwaziphi izimo.
Umehluko obalulekile okufanele ukhunjulwe
- Ukuxhumana akusho ukuthi kubangelwa yiniKungase kube nobudlelwano obungenaso isixhumanisi esiyisisekelo sembangela.
- Ukuba imbangela kusho indlela yokwenza izintoNoma kunjalo, kungase kungabonakali njengokuxhumana uma kukhona izilawuli noma izinxephezelo ezifihla iphethini.
- Ubudlelwano bulingana (U-A no-B ufana no-B no-A), imbangela ayiyona: ukuthi u-A ubangela u-B akusho ukuthi u-B ubangela u-A.
Izibonelo ezihlola ukuqonda
Ukuxhumana ngaphandle kwembangela: isicupho sesithathu esiguquguqukayo
Ekuhlaziyeni kwesikhathi kuyinto evamile ukubona ukuthi ezinyangeni ezishisayo ukuthengiswa kwe-ayisikhilimu kuyanda kanye nokuminza ebhishi. Zombili lezi zinhlobo ziyahambisana ngenxa yesici esifanayo. (izinga lokushisa kanye nokusetshenziswa okwandisiwe kolwandle), hhayi ngoba i-ayisikhilimu ibangela ukuminza noma okuphambene nalokho. Lesi yisibonelo esivamile sokuhlobana okungamanga ngenxa yenguquko edidayo.
Kwenzeka okufanayo ngokuthola kwabezindaba mayelana nezingane ezilala zikhanyise isibani kanye namathuba amakhulu okuba ne-myopia. Kamuva kwabonakala ukuthi i-myopia yabazali Kwathonya kokubili ukusetshenziswa kokukhanya kwasebusuku, kanye nofuzo, umbono wezingane. Futhi, inguquko yesithathu echaza ubudlelwano.
Uma kukhona imbangela, kodwa ukuhambisana kuyanyamalala
Cabanga nge-thermostat egcina indlu isezingeni lokushisa elifanayo ngokulawula isithando somlilo esisebenza ngophethiloli. Inani likaphethiloli libangela ukushisaKodwa-ke, ngenxa yokuthi i-thermostat iyasiza, izinga lokushisa langaphakathi lingase lingahambisani nophethiloli oshisiwe. Kukhona ubudlelwano obuyimbangela ngaphandle kobudlelwano obubonakalayo kulokho kulinganisa.
Isiqondiso sibalulekile, futhi ngezinye izikhathi siya emuva.
Kuvame ukushiwo ukuthi ukuphila impilo esebenzayo kuvikela ukusebenza kwengqondo kubantu abadala. Kodwa-ke, kungenzeka ukuthi imbangela ephambene nayo ingenzeka.Labo abagcina ukusebenza kwengqondo okungcono bavame ukugcina imikhuba esebenzayo kakhudlwana. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kuhlangana kukodwa akuxazululi umcibisholo wesikhathi.
Indida kaSimpson
Lokhu kuxaka kuvela lapho umkhuba okhona ku-aggregate uguqulwa lapho uhlukaniswa ngamaqembu amancane. Isibonelo esivamile ukwelashwa okubonakala kusebenza kangcono ngemithamo ephezulu. Kuyo yonke idatha, kodwa uma ihlukaniswa ngokobulili, iphethini iyaguqulwa ngoba ukusatshalaliswa komthamo kuyahluka phakathi kwamaqembu. Ukuqhathanisa ama-apula nama-orenji kufihla iqiniso.
Indlela yokuthola ubudlelwano obungamanga
Ithuluzi eliwusizo ukuxhumanisa okuyingxenye: Ilinganisa ubudlelwano phakathi kweziguquguquko ezimbili ngenkathi ilawula okwesithathu.Uma ukuxhumana phakathi kwe-ayisikhilimu nokuminza kunyamalala lapho kulawulwa izinga lokushisa, uyazi ukuthi ubudlelwano babuyinkohliso.
Elinye isu ukuhlukanisa ukuhlaziywa ngokwezigaba: hlukanisa ngamaqembu afanele (ubudala, ubulili, isifunda) noma ulungise iziguquguquko ezididayo kumamodeli, ukuze kuhlukaniswe imiphumela futhi kugwenywe iziphetho ezidukisayo ngenxa yokuxubana kwabantu.
Izilinganiso eziyisisekelo zokulinganisa ukuhlangana
I-Covariance ikhombisa indlela yokushintsha kwamalunga eziguquguquko ezimbili. Kuhle uma behamba ngendlela efanayo kanti kubi uma behamba ngezindlela eziphambeneInani eliseduze no-zero lisikisela ukungabikho kobudlelwano obuqondile. Isikali salo sincike kumayunithi, ngakho-ke alifani phakathi kwamabhangqa ahlukene; lokhu kunakekelwa ngama-metrics kukhumbuza imikhuba ye- ukulawula ikhwalithi.
I-coefficient kaPearson ilungisa i-covariance futhi isukela ku--1 kuya ku-1. Kusebenza ukulinganisa amandla obudlelwano obuqondile phakathi kwezinguquko eziqhubekayo zobuningi, lapho u-1 noma u--1 emele ubudlelwano obuphelele. Iphinde inikeze inani le-p ukuhlola ukuthi ukuhlangana okubonwe kungabangelwa yini yingozi ngaphansi kwezibikezelo ezithile.
USpearman uhlola inhlangano ngokusekelwe ezinhlwini. Kusebenza kahle uma ubudlelwano buyinto eyodwa kodwa hhayi ukuthi buqondile.futhi iqine kakhulu kunezingaphandle. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isekela iziguquguquko ezijwayelekile, into uPearson angayisekeli.
Ezinye izinketho ezingavamile kakhulu zifaka phakathi i-Kendall yokufanisa amazinga kanye nephuzu eli-biserial lapho I-variable eyodwa i-dichotomous kanti enye i-interval.Ukukhetha i-coefficient efanele kugwema ukuchazwa kabi.
Ngokuphathelene nenani elidumile le-p, kufanelekile ukucacisa: Akulona ithuba lokuthi umbono othile uyiqinisoKubonisa ukuthi idatha ebonwe ingaba nkulu kangakanani uma imodeli engenalutho ibilungile. Inani eliphansi le-p lisikisela ukuthi ukuhlangana okubonwe akunakwenzeka ukuthi kungenxa yengozi, kodwa akuqinisekisi, ngokwako, ukuthi kuyimbangela.
Isikhathi sokusebenzisa isilinganiso ngasinye
Uma ufuna ukwazi ukuthi iziguquguquko ezimbili zihamba ngakuphi ngaphandle kokuhlosa ukuqhathanisa ubukhulu, I-Covariance ikunikeza inkombaUkuze kulinganiswe amandla obudlelwano obuqondile neziguquguquko eziqhubekayo futhi ezingenazo izinto ezinkulu ezingaphandle, i-Pearson iyisinqumo semvelo.
Uma usola ukuthi ubudlelwano buyisicefe kodwa abuqondile, Ingabe kukhona amanani adlulele noma usebenza ngedatha ye-ordinal?I-coefficient yokuhambisana kwezinga likaSpearman ivame ukunikeza izimpendulo ezinokwethenjelwa kakhulu. Futhi khumbula: yonke i-coefficient ichaza i-association, hhayi umphumela.
Iyini imodeli yesizathu futhi isetshenziselwani?
Ukumodela i-Structural equation (SEM) kuvumela cacisa ubudlelwano obuhambisanayo phakathi kweziguquguquko ezinemigomo yamaphutha kanye nemikhawulo yethiyori. Ziwusizo lapho uhlelo lunezindlela eziningi zezimbangela kanye neziguquguquko ezifihliwe.
Indlela yokwenza isiphetho sesizathu ngokuqinile
Itshe lokuhlola liyizilingo ezilawulwa ngokungahleliwe. Ukungahleliwe kunikeza ukwelashwa noma ukulawula ngokungahleliwengokulinganisa izici ezibonwe nezingabonakali ngokwesilinganiso. Uma konke okunye kuhlala kufana, umehluko emiphumeleni ubangelwa ukwelashwa.
Uma ukwenza ngokungahleliwe kungenzeki, kuvela imiklamo yokuhlola okungathi iyahlolwa. Inqubo yokufanisa ihlose ukuqhathanisa ama-apula nama-apula., ukufanisa amayunithi aphathwe kanye nokulawula kuma-covariate afanele.
Ukungaqhubeki kokuhlehla kusebenzisa umkhawulo: iphuzu lokuqeda elinikeza ukwelashwaLabo abawela ngaphezu nangaphansi komkhawulo bayafana ngaphandle kokungenelela, okuvumela ukuthi umphumela ulinganiswe endaweni.
Umehluko phakathi kokungafani uqhathaniswa ukuvela kweqembu eliphathwe kahle kanye neqembu lokulawula Ngaphambi nangemva kokungenelela, sicabangela izitayela ezifanayo lapho kungekho ukwelashwa. Kuyithuluzi elinamandla ekuhlolweni kwenqubomgomo.
Idatha yokubuka ingasetshenziswa futhi ukuthuthuka ngokuhlanganisa ithiyori kanye nezibalo kanye ukuhlaziywa kwesimo. Izinsimbi ezisebenzayo, izilawuli zokwenziwa, noma amamodeli e-ML Zisiza ukulinganisa imiphumela, zihlale zicacisa izibikezelo. Amathuluzi okuhlaziya afana namapulatifomu ezikhangiso noma amasudi okuhlaziya edijithali abonisa le ndlela ngemininingwane yomlando.
Ubudlelwano ku-Big Data: Amathuba kanye Nezithiyo
Ukuhlola ubudlelwano kuma-database amakhulu kuthola amaphethini abalulekile, kodwa Uma ulwandle lwedatha lukhulu, kulapho izinhlabamkhosi ezingamanga zihlabelela khonaKubonakala sengathi ukuhlangana okuphawulekayo kuwumphumela wokuhlangana kwezibalo, hhayi ubudlelwano bangempela.
Ama-algorithms athola ukujwayela, kodwa ngaphandle kombuzo ocacile wesizathu kanye nomklamo wocwaningo oluqinileAmathuba okuphambanisa umsindo nesiginali anda kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, ukuqondisa ukuhambisana kuyacabanga; imbangela isekelwa izifundo eziklanywe kahle.
Ulimi olunesibopho: izimpawu zesexwayiso
Uma ufunda izihloko zezindaba, qaphela izenzo ezihlukanisayo njengokunciphisa, ukwandisa, imbangela, noma ukususa uma ubufakazi buvela ezifundweni zokubuka. Kunconywa ukusebenzisa izinkulumo ezihlakaniphile njengoba kuhlotshaniswa, kungathuthuka, kusikisela ubudlelwano.
Uphinde asole izimangalo zembangela ezisekelwe ekubonweni okululaUkuhlangana akunqumi indlela: kungaba okuphambene noma ngenxa yeziguquguquko ezididayo. Ukuqapha olimini kuvimbela izinqumo ezimbi.
Isibonelo esichazayo kwakuyisigijimi sokuthi ukusetshenziswa kwamafutha omnqumo kunciphisa ukufa. Ubufakazi bokubuka buthola ubudlelwano obuhleKodwa lokhu akwanele ukufakazela umphumela oyimbangela; kufaneleke kakhulu ukusho ukuthi kuhlobene nokufa okuphansi, noma ukuthi kungakunciphisa, njengoba kusalindwe ukuhlolwa.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kwakunezihloko ezikhuluma ngokwelashwa kwamahomoni okwakubonakala kuvikela inhliziyo. Ngokulawula izinga lezenhlalo nezomnotho kanye nendlela yokuphila Umphumela waphela futhi wabuyela emuva. Izinto ezifihliwe zingabangela umonakalo omkhulu uma zingalawulwa.
Izibonelo zansuku zonke ezikhohlisayo
Iqhude liyakhala ngaphambi kokusa futhi ilanga liphuma nsuku zonke, kodwa Ukucula akukwenzi ilanga liphumeNgokufanayo, ukugeza imoto akubangeli imvula, nakuba ngezinye izikhathi kungase kubonakale kunjalo ngengozi nje.
Empilweni, uma unesifo somkhuhlane uphuza ijusi likalamula bese kuthi ngemva kwezinsuku ezimbalwa ube ngcono. Ukuvela kwemvelo kokuthelelekaUkuphumula kanye nokunakekelwa okunye kuchaza intuthuko; asikwazi ukumane sikubize ngokuthi kungenxa yejusi.
Izinguquko zezimpawu zingabonakala nganoma yikuphi ukwelashwa. Lokho akwanele ukuphetha ngokuthi ushintsho lubangelwa ukwelashwa.Izici zangaphandle, ukuhlehla kwesilinganiso, noma ukuthuthuka okuzenzekelayo kungase kube nomthelela.
Labo abadla ukudla okuncane okucutshungulwe kakhulu bavame ukuba nezinga eliphansi lomdlavuza, kodwa Lowo mehluko ungase ubonise izindlela zokuphila ezinempilo.Umsebenzi omkhulu womzimba, ukufinyelela okungcono ekunakekelweni, noma umehluko kwezenhlalo nakwezomnotho. Lokhu kuxhumana akubonisi imbangela.
Kusukela ekuhlobaneni kuya ekubangeleni ngezifundo zobufakazi
Icala elidumile: ukuvivinya umzimba okwengeziwe kuhlobene nesifo senhliziyo esincane. Ubudlelwano buvula umnyango wemibonoIsibonelo, ukuzivocavoca kungandisa i-nitric oxide futhi kwandise imithambo yegazi, kunciphise umfutho wegazi. Ukuhlolwa okulawulwayo kungalinganisa le ndlela bese kulinganisa umphumela wembangela.
Esinye isibonelo esingenangqondo: ungathola ukuthi ukuzivocavoca kakhulu kuhlobene nokwanda komdlavuza wesikhumba. Imbangela evamile yangempela kungaba ukuchayeka elangeniokwandisa kokubili umsebenzi wangaphandle kanye nengozi yomdlavuza wesikhumba. Ngaphandle komklamo wokuhlola noma ukulawula okuhle kwezici ezididayo, ukuhumusha okuyimbangela kungaba yiphutha.
Ukuhlehla kanye nokuba nomthelela: okusebenzayo nokungasebenzi
Ukuhlehla kubikezela i-variable eyodwa kwenye ngaphansi kokuqagela kwezibalo. Kodwa ukuhlangana noma ukuhlehla akubonisi imbangela. ngokwazo; umqondo wembangela kumele uvele emfundisweni, esikhathini, noma ekwakhiweni.
Uma sikhuluma ngomphumela oyimbangela, udinga okungenani ubudlelwano obubalulekile ngokwezibalo kanye umbandela wokuphathaKungakhathaliseki ukuthi i-causal variable yenzeka ngaphambi komphumela, noma kukhona isizathu esiqinile sethiyori sesixhumanisi se-causal. Ngaphandle kwesikhathi noma i-theory, kukhona ukuhlangana, hhayi i-causation.
Isibonelo: ukuphenya ukuthi ubudala ingane ebhala ngabo imisho yayo yokuqala buhlobene yini nempumelelo yayo yezemfundo elandelayo. Okokuqala, ukuhlanganiswa kuqhathaniswaUma ikhona, isiqondiso sicacile ngokwesimiso sesikhathi: impumelelo yesikole ayikwazi ukubuyela emuva esikhathini futhi ishintshe lapho ikhuluma okokuqala.
Futhi uma ufuna amathuluzi ongazijwayeza, kunezibali eziku-inthanethi nezinsizakusebenza Zikuvumela ukuthi usebenzise ama-correlations nama-regressions ngendlela elula; amanye amapulatifomu afana ne-numiqo enza kube lula lokhu kuhlaziya kothisha, abacwaningi kanye nochwepheshe.
Indlela yokukhetha phakathi kokuhlobana kanye nokuphetha okuyimbangela kuye ngenhloso
Ukuxhumana kulungele ukuhlola nokuqapha ubudlelwano kumadeshibhodi, beka phambili imibono bese uthola amaphethini. e marketingUkuhlobanisa ukuvakasha okuphindaphindiwe nokuguqulwa noma ukuhlonza okuqukethwe okuhambisana nemvamisa yokuthenga kuyasiza kakhulu.
Uma inhloso iwukuba kuhlotshaniswe umthelela ekungeneleleni okuthile (kwenzekani uma ngandisa isabelomali sokukhangisa), Udinga izindlela ze-causalOkungcono kakhulu, ukuhlolwa kwe-A/B ngokunikezwa okungahleliwe; uma lokhu kungenzeki, imiklamo yokuhlola efana nokufanisa, ukungaqhubeki, noma umehluko phakathi komehluko.
Ngedatha evela kumathuluzi afana nama-analytics suites kanye namapulatifomu okukhangisa, kuvamile ukusebenzisa amamodeli anedatha yokubuka kusekelwa yizinkolelo ezicacile. Ngezinye izikhathi amathuluzi asebenzayo noma ukulawulwa kokwenziwa kuyasetshenziswa ukwakha amaqiniso athembekile.
Uma unesifiso sokuzama izibonelo ezingaphinde zikhiqizwe, ungabheka izindawo zokugcina ezibonisa amakhodi ayisisekelo okudlala ngedatha ezimweni ezahlukene, njengasesibonelweni esitholakala kulesi sixhumanisi: github.com/pichu2707/corr-causal-enae.
Amathiphu awusizo okuhlola ubufakazi
Ngaphambi kokuba wamukele isihloko esithakazelisayo, zibuze: Ingabe kukhona ukungahleliwe noma ukuqaphela nje?Ingabe kukhona izilawuli ezanele zokuphazamisa? Ingabe amaqembu amancane axoxa indaba efanayo, noma ingabe kuvela i-Simpson paradox? Lena yindlela ohlunga ngayo umsindo.
Uma ubona isifundo sokubuka esinesenzo esinamandla, siphinde usibeke ngendlela enemibandela engqondweni: kuhlotshaniswa futhi kunganciphisa noma kwandiseLo mkhakha omncane wezilimi ugwema ukuhumusha ngokweqile futhi ugcina ukwethembeka kwesayensi.
Hlukanisa ucwaningo ngengqondo: ngokubuka noma ngokungenelela. Abacwaningi abahlolayo bathola ukuxhumanaIzifundo zokuhlola, uma zenziwe kahle, zivumela ukuqiniseka okukhulu ekuqinisekiseni imbangela. Zisebenza njengesihlungi esisheshayo sokugwema izingibe.
Ku-psychology yezokwelapha kanye nokwelashwa kwengqondo, lapho izici eziningi zihlangana futhi zixhumana khona, amaqembu anolwazi ezimweni zangempela Zisikhumbuza ukuthi ukuphetha ngembangela kudinga ukuqaphela okukhethekile kanye nemiklamo efanele ukuze kugwenywe ukudideka kokuxhumana okuphawulekayo nemiphumela yangempela yokwelapha.
Ukubheka idatha ngokucophelela, ukukhetha ithuluzi elifanele lombuzo, kanye nokuqaphela ulimi kwenza umehluko phakathi kokubona ukuthi izinto ezimbili ziyahambisana nokubonisa ukuthi enye ihambisa enye. Sebenzisa ukuhlobana ukuhlola nokubeka phambili imibonoGcina izindlela zezimbangela zokufaka imiphumela nokwenza izinqumo; ngale ndlela uzosuka kulokho okunyakazayo nokuthi yini eyabangela ukuthini ngokuthembeka okukhulu ngangokunokwenzeka.