- Ingozi yezwe ihlola amathuba okuthi isizwe sizohluleka ukufeza izibopho zaso zezimali ngenxa yezici zezepolitiki, zenhlalo kanye nezomnotho.
- Ihlukile ku-primiyamu yobungozi ngokuthi eyokuqala iwukuhlaziywa okuphelele kanti eyesibili iwumehluko wesilinganiso senzalo esithile samabhondi.
- Ukuze kuncishiswe le ngozi, abatshalizimali basebenzisa amathuluzi okuhlukahluka kwezindawo kanye nokulinganisa njenge-EMBI index noma izilinganiso zekhredithi.
Uma umuntu enquma ukuhambisa imali yakhe phesheya, uhlangabezana nomqondo ongase uzwakale njengobuchwepheshe kodwa oyisisekelo: ingozi yezwe. Empeleni, kuyisilinganiso sokungaqiniseki esisitshela ukuthi kuphephile yini ukutshala imali emnothweni wesizwe esithile, sikhumbula ukuthi akugcini nje ngezinombolo, kodwa futhi nangendlela uhulumeni aphatha ngayo abantu bawo kanye nomhlaba wonke.
Kalula nje, kungenzeka ukuthi izwe lizohluleka ukufeza izibopho zalo zezimali zomhlaba wonke. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kungenxa yenkinga enkulu yezomnotho, ushintsho oluzumayo lukahulumeni, noma iziyaluyalu zomphakathi, lesi sibonakaliso sixwayisa abatshalizimali ngezinkinga ezingaba khona ezingathinta izimpahla noma amalungelo abo kuleyo ndawo.
Ukuhlahlela umqondo: Izincazelo kanye nama-nuances
Empeleni, ingozi yezwe inezigaba eziningana. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kunombono obanzi ohlanganisa noma yimiphi imiphumela emibi engathinta ukungeniswa kwempahla, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, noma ubunikazi bezinkampani zakwamanye amazwe ngenxa yezinguquko esakhiweni sezenhlalo noma sezepolitiki sezwe. Empeleni, ingozi engokwemvelo yokusebenza endaweni yangaphandle.
Ngokombono wezezimali, sikhuluma ngengozi ecatshangelwayo lapho kuthengwa izibambiso zemali engenayo engaguquki noma eziguquguqukayo ezikhishwe yizinhlangano kulelo zwe, noma lapho kunikezwa imali mboleko kubahlali balo. Uma ingozi ivele, umtshali-zimali ubhekene nethuba lokukhokha okubambezelekile noma, esimweni esibi kakhulu, ukungakwazi ukubuyisa isikweletu sakhe, okuhlobene ngqo nengozi yesikweletu kanye nezindlela zaso zokuvikela.
I-Country Risk vs. Risk Premium: Ingabe ziyafana?
Abantu abaningi bavame ukudida la magama amabili, kodwa nakuba ehlobene, awafani. Ingozi yezwe iwukuhlolwa okuphelele nokusezingeni eliphezulu okucabangela ukukhuphuka kwamanani emali, i-GDP, kanye nokuzinza kwezepolitiki. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iprimiyamu yengozi iyinani eliqondile kakhulu: ukusabalala kwesilinganiso senzalo okufunwa yimakethe ngamabhondi ezwe uma kuqhathaniswa nalawo ezwe elibhekwa njengeliphephile.
Isibonelo, e-Eurozone, isilinganiso yiJalimane kanye nebhondi yayo (i-Bund), kanti eMelika, isibuko yi-United States kanye nebhondi yayo ye-Treasury. Uma izwe kufanele likhokhe inzuzo ephezulu kakhulu kuneJalimane ukuze othile athenge isikweletu salo, njengoba kunjalo lapho kuhlaziywa amabhondi eminyaka eyi-10 kanye nezingozi zawo , kungenxa yokuthi abatshalizimali babona amathuba aphezulu okwehluleka , ngaleyo ndlela kubonakalisa ingxenye yengozi yezwe iyonke.
Izinguquko ezishukumisa inaliti yobungozi
Ukuze babale lesi sibonakaliso, ochwepheshe abashintshi uhlamvu lwemali, kodwa kunalokho bahlaziya izici ezintathu ezinkulu:
- Izici Zezomnotho: Yilapho-ke izikweletu zangaphandle maqondana ne-GDP, amazinga okwehla kwamandla emali (okwethusa uma ephezulu kakhulu), ukukhula kwe-GDP, kanye nenani lezimali ezigciniwe zomhlaba wonke uhulumeni okufanele azikhokhele izikweletu zakhe zisebenza khona.
- Izici Zezepolitiki: Amandla egatsha eliphezulu, ukuba khona kwenkohlakalo, ikhwalithi yemithetho, kanye nobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe kuyahlaziywa. Uma kukhona izigwebo zangaphandle noma uhlaka olubuthakathaka lwezikhungo, ingozi enkulu ngokushesha.
- Izici Zomphakathi: Ukungalingani kwezomnotho, ukungasebenzi, kanye nekhwalithi yezinsizakalo eziyisisekelo njengezempilo nemfundo kubalulekile. Imibhikisho emikhulu noma ukungazinzi komphakathi kudala indawo yokungaqiniseki okubangela Kuyesabisa imali yakwamanye amazwe..
Ukuhlukaniswa kwezingozi nezinhlobo
Kuye ngokuthi inkinga ivelaphi, singahlukanisa le ngozi ibe yizici ezimbili. Ingozi yezomnotho neyezezimali ibhekisela ekhonweni langempela lokukhokha; lokhu kufaka phakathi ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukwanda okukhulu kwentengo, noma ukungalingani kwezohwebo. Ingozi yezepolitiki , ngakolunye uhlangothi, igxile ekubuseni, njengalapho uhulumeni enquma ukwenza izinkampani ezizimele zibe ngezasekhaya noma eshintsha imithetho yentela ngokuzumayo ukuze kulimaze abatshalizimali.
Ingozi ilinganiswa kanjani ezweni langempela?
Kunezindlela eziningana zokulinganisa le ngozi. Elinye lamathuluzi aziwa kakhulu yi -JP Morgan's EMBI Index , elinganisa umehluko phakathi kwezibopho zemakethe ezisafufusa kanye ne-US Treasuries. Kukhona nezinhlangano zokulinganisa ezifana ne-Moody's, Standard & Poor's, kanye ne-Fitch, ezinikeza isilinganiso sesikweletu ngokusekelwe emandleni ezezimali ezwe.
Enye indlela yokubheka i- Credit Default Swaps (CDS) , esebenza njengomshwalense wokungakhokhi. Uma izindleko zokuqinisekisa isikweletu sezwe zikhuphuka, kuyisibonakaliso esicacile sokuthi imakethe ikholelwa ukuthi ingozi inyukile. Njengamanje, amazwe afana neVenezuela, iRussia, i-Argentina, neZimbabwe avame ukuba phezulu ohlwini lwezingozi ezinkulu , kuyilapho iNorway neSwitzerland zimelela izindawo eziphephile.
Umthelela emasu okuhweba nawokuvikela
Ingozi enkulu akuyona nje isibalo; inemiphumela yangempela. Ibangela ukuba izindleko zezimali zikhuphuke, ukuzethemba kwabatshalizimali kunciphe, kanye nobudlelwano bezohwebo bunciphe. Isibonelo esicacile kwaba umthelela wempi e-Ukraine, okwakungenzeka ukuthi, ngokusho kwe-BBVA, ukuhweba kwamazwe ngamazwe kwehle ngo-4%.
Ukuze bagweme ukudlala i-roulette yaseRussia ngemali yabo, abatshalizimali basebenzisa amasu okunciphisa izingozi. Okusebenzayo kakhulu ukuhlukahluka kwezindawo , ukusabalalisa imali yabo ezifundeni ezahlukene ukuze bagweme ukuthembela ezweni elilodwa. Kubalulekile futhi ukuhlaziya isilinganiso sengozi/umvuzo nokwenza ucwaningo olunzulu lwezingozi ezithile ngaphambi kokuthatha isinyathelo.
Ukuphathwa okuhlakaniphile kokutshalwa kwezimali kwamazwe ngamazwe kuncike ekuqondeni ukuthi ukuzinza kwezomnotho kanye nezepolitiki kuyitshe lesisekelo senzuzo. Ngokuhlanganisa ukuhlaziywa kwezinkomba ezifana ne-EMBI, izilinganiso zesikweletu, kanye nesu lokuhlukahluka, kungenzeka ukuhamba ezimakethe zomhlaba wonke ngenkathi uvikela imali ekungazinzini okuzimele.
