- Ukuhlaziywa kwe-top-down kuqala ngesimo sezomnotho omkhulu bese kwehlela emikhakheni ethile kanye nezinkampani.
- Indlela esetshenziswa kusukela phansi kuya phezulu ibeka phambili izisekelo kanye nempilo yezezimali yenkampani ngaphambi kokubheka umongo womhlaba wonke.
- Zombili izindlela zingahlanganiswa ukuze kutholakale imikhakha ethembisayo futhi kukhethwe izimpahla ezisezingeni eliphezulu ngaphakathi kwayo.
Zicabange ufuna ukufunda incwadi; ngenkathi sihambisa amehlo ethu kusuka kwesobunxele kuya kwesokudla futhi sivundlile, eJapane inqubo ihluke ngokuphelele, njengoba bebhala kusukela phezulu kuya phansi kanye nakwesokudla kuya kwesobunxele. Nakuba indlela iphambene, inhloso iyafana: ukuqonda umyalezo. Nokho, ezweni lezezimali kanye nokuphathwa kwephothifoliyo, kwenzeka into efanayo ngezindlela zokuhlaziya. Kunezindlela ezimbili eziyinhloko zokunquma ukuthi uzotshala kuphi imali yakho, futhi yize zibonakala ziphikisana, zombili zisebenza ukudala isithombe esiphelele sokutshalwa kwezimali ngaphambi kokuthatha isinyathelo.
Sivame ukuzwa ukuhlaziywa okuvela phezulu kuya phansi naphansi kuxoxwa njengokungathi kuyizimpi eziphikisanayo. Iqiniso liwukuthi wonke umphathi unendlela yakhe, njengoba kusho isisho, kodwa isihluthulelo sisekutheni sichaza kanjani idatha. Omunye ukhetha ukubheka ihlathi kunokubheka izihlahla, kanti omunye ukhathalela impilo yeqabunga ngalinye ukuze aqonde isimo sehlathi sonke. Ukuqonda lo mehluko akusizi nje kuphela kochwepheshe, kodwa nakunoma ubani ofuna ukuthuthukisa ukwakheka kwesikhwama sakhe noma iphothifoliyo yesitoko.
Indlela Yokusuka Ezansi: kusukela ku-macro kuya ku-micro
Uma sikhuluma ngesu lokwehla kusuka phezulu kuya phansi, sisho inqubo yokuhlaziya kusuka phezulu kuya phansi . Esikhundleni sokufuna inkampani ethile, umtshali-zimali uqala ngokutadisha isithombe esikhulu. Umnotho womhlaba wonke uyahlaziywa, ugxile ezinkombeni ezifana nokukhula kwe-GDP, isimo sokuqashwa, amathuba okwehla kwamandla emali, kanye nemikhuba yezepolitiki. Lo mbono obanzi uvumela abatshalizimali ukuthi baqonde ukuthi yisiphi isigaba somjikelezo wezomnotho abakuso, njengoba ukutshala imali ngesikhathi sokwehla kwamandla emali akufani nokutshala imali ngesikhathi sokwanda.
Uma isimo somhlaba wonke sesicacile, umhlaziyi unciphisa ukugxila ukuze abone ukuthi yiziphi izifunda noma amazwe anikeza amathuba amahle kakhulu. Isibonelo, bangase baqaphele ukuthi umnotho waseNdiya ukhula ngaphezu kwesilinganiso somhlaba wonke, okwenza kube yimakethe ekhangayo. Ngemva kokuchaza ububanzi bezindawo, isinyathelo esilandelayo ukuhlunga ngemikhakha. Yilapho ukucabanga komnotho kuqala khona: ngezikhathi zenhlekelele, imikhakha yokuzivikela njengebhange noma izinsiza ivame ukuma kangcono, kanti ngezikhathi zokuchuma, imikhakha yokujikeleza noma yobuchwepheshe ivame ukuqala.
Isinyathelo sokugcina kule nqubo ukukhetha inkampani ngayinye. Uma sesiyazi, isibonelo, ukuthi umkhakha wokudla uyasebenza ngoba ungadlulisela ukwenyuka kwezindleko kumthengi wokugcina endaweni yokwehla kwamandla emali, siqhathanisa izinkampani ezithile ezifana neNestlé, iDanone, noma iCoca-Cola. Kulapho-ke kuphela lapho sihlaziya khona izisekelo ezithile , njenge-Earings Per Share (EPS), isilinganiso se-P/E, ukuhamba kwemali, noma amazinga esikweletu, ukuze sinqume ukuthi yisiphi isitoko okufanele sitshale imali kuso.
Indlela Yokubheka Ezansi: Ukugxila Enkampanini
Ukuhlaziywa kwe-bottom-up empeleni kuyindlela ephambene: sisebenza kusukela phansi kuya phezulu. Lapha, okubaluleke kakhulu akuyona i-macroeconomics, kodwa ikhwalithi yangaphakathi yenkampani. Umtshali-zimali usebenza njengomseshi ofuna amathuba angabalulekile emakethe , ehlaziya impilo yezezimali, ukusebenza kahle, kanye nezinzuzo zokuncintisana zebhizinisi elithile, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi umongo uwonke uyathandeka noma cha.
Lesi sitayela sithandwa ngabatshalizimali "abanenani", abafuna izinkampani ezine-moat yezomnotho noma inzuzo yokuncintisana eqhubekayo . Isibonelo esihle nguWarren Buffett, obeka phambili ukuphathwa kwenkampani kanye namandla entengo kunezibikezelo zebhange eliphakathi. Le nqubo ihilela ukuhlaziywa okujulile kwezithiyo zokungena embonini, ikhwalithi yomkhiqizo, kanye nemiphumela yekota ukuqinisekisa ukuthi inkampani ingumkhiqizi wenani wesikhathi eside.
Nakuba kugxilwe enkampanini, umhlaziyi oqala phansi akawushayi indiva ngokuphelele umvelo. Ngemva kokuthola igugu lezezimali, bazobuyekeza lo mkhakha, futhi ekugcineni, umnotho kazwelonke nowamazwe ngamazwe ukuze bahlole izingozi zangaphandle ezingaba khona ezingathinta inzuzo. Laba batshalizimali ngokuvamile balandela ifilosofi ethi "thenga futhi ubambe", njengoba benokwethemba okuphelele ezisekelweni zempahla ekhethiwe.
Imvelaphi kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza ngale kwemakethe yesitoko
Ngokuthakazelisayo, umqondo wokusebenzisa i-top-down awuzange uqale eWall Street, kodwa waqala kwisayensi yamakhompyutha. Abacwaningi be-IBM abanjengoHarlan Mills noNiklaus Wirth basekele le ndlela yokuxazulula izinkinga eziyinkimbinkimbi: okokuqala, ukwakheka kwesofthiwe iyonke kuyachazwa, bese imininingwane yobuchwepheshe ihlukaniswa. Leli khono lokuhlukanisa imigomo yomhlaba wonke ibe yimisebenzi emincane livumele indlela yokusebenza ukuthi yamukelwe eminye imikhakha yobungcweti.
- Ukuphathwa Kwebhizinisi: Isetshenziselwa ukuhlola izinqubo zangaphakathi, lapho umnikazi webhizinisi eqala ngokuhlaziya imali engenayo iyonke bese elungisa ezokuthutha noma isevisi yamakhasimende.
- Izinqubomgomo Zomphakathi: Kutholakala inkinga enkulu yomphakathi, bese kuklanywa izixazululo ukuze zisetshenziswe ngendlela ethile kumasipala noma esifundeni ngasinye.
- Ubunjiniyela kanye namaphrojekthi: Kuvumela ukusungulwa kwemiyalelo ecacile ukuze iqembu liqonde umbono wonke ngaphambi kokwenza imisebenzi yomuntu ngamunye, ngaleyo ndlela kuncishiswe ingozi yamaphutha omuntu.
Ukuqhathanisa nokusebenzisana phakathi kwalezi zinhlobo zombili
Uma siqhathanisa lezi zindlela ezimbili eceleni, umehluko omkhulu usekuqaleni kwazo. Ngenkathi ukuhlaziya okuvela phezulu kuya phansi kuyindlela yokulandelana ebeka phambili imvelo, ukuhlaziya okuvela phansi kuya phezulu kuyindlela ehlanganisa izinto eziningi ebeka phambili impahla ngokwayo. Kodwa-ke, asikho isidingo sokukhetha uhlangothi olulodwa noma olunye. Eqinisweni, abaphathi abaphumelela kakhulu bavame ukusebenzisa izinhlelo ezihlanganisiwe ukunciphisa ubungozi.
Isu elihlanganisiwe lingabandakanya ukusebenzisa ukuhlaziya okuvela phezulu ukuze kukhishwe amazwe anokungazinzile kwezepolitiki bese kukhethwa imikhakha ethembisayo, bese kusetshenziswa isihlungi esivela phansi ukuze kukhethwe kuphela lezo zinkampani ezinokuphathwa okungenaphutha kanye nama-balance sheet aqinile. Le ndlela iqinisekisa ukuthi asigcini nje ngokuthenga inkampani enhle, kodwa futhi sikwenza lokho ngesikhathi nendawo efanele.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi ayikho indlela engenakugwenywa. Ukuhlaziywa kwe-top-down kungaphazanyiswa yisenzakalo "se-black swan", njengesimo esibucayi se-geopolitical esingalindelekile esishintsha isimo sezomnotho omkhulu. Ngokuphambene nalokho, indlela ye-bottom-up kuphela ingase inganaki iqiniso lokuthi, ngisho nasenkampanini enhle kakhulu, ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo okunamandla kunganciphisa inani lomkhakha wayo wonke. Ngakho-ke, ukuphatha ngenkuthalo i-beta nokulungisa ukuvezwa kwengozi ngokuya ngomjikelezo wezomnotho kubalulekile ukuze kuphile isikhathi eside.
Kokubili ukuhlaziya okuvela phezulu kanye nocwaningo oluvela phansi lunikeza amathuluzi awusizo okuzulazula ezimakethe zezimali. Ngenkathi enye inikeza ikhampasi yokuqonda imimoya kanye namagagasi ezomnotho, enye iqinisekisa ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali esikukhethile kuqine kakhulu futhi kusebenza kahle. Ubuchwepheshe beqiniso bokutshalwa kwezimali bulele ekulinganiseni umbono womhlaba wonke ngemininingwane ecophelelayo, okuvumela ukwenza izinqumo ukuthi kusekelwe kudatha eqondile kunokuqonda, ngaleyo ndlela kufezwe iphothifoliyo eqinile nelungiselelwe kahle kunoma yisiphi isimo.
